WCMA: Cheddar Boom Hits in a Volatile Year
May 13, 2025 | 1 min to read
Cheddapalooza has arrived, marking a notable rise in cheddar and American cheese production across the U.S., though challenges loom for dairy processors in 2025 due to fluctuating tariffs and economic uncertainty. Retail demand for cheddar shows positive growth, with volume and dollar sales increasing by 1.5% and 2.9% respectively from February 2024 to February 2025. Meanwhile, international cheese sales remain strong, countering declines in other dairy exports according to the U.S. Dairy Export Council.
Cheddapalooza is here.
The upswell of cheddar and American styles production in the United States predicted in this column three years ago is in full swing. But far from being a sole challenge to the dairy industry, this sharp increase in cheese production at new and renovated facilities joins a host of converging factors – oscillating tariffs, uneven milk production, new federal order base prices, and the potential for an economic downturn—that make 2025 a challenging year for dairy processors.
Domestic Sales
Let’s start with retail demand. Cheddar cheese at retail is in positive territory looking at the most recent sales data: February 2025 vs. February 2024. Cheddar volume sales are up 1.5 percent using “gold-standard” retail scanner data. Cheddar dollar sales are up 2.9 percent in that time frame. Monterey Jack is flat – down 0.1 percent in volume in the same February to February comparison.
Export Sales
Demand outside the U.S. is the wilder card. The latest dairy export data from U.S. Dairy Export Council (USDEC) captures February 2025 activity and cheese sales abroad remained positive, while nonfat dry milk/skim milk powders and whey protein exports declined sharply.
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